The Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered the largest disruption to global oil markets in decades. With Brent crude surging past $100 per barrel — up more than 40% since late February — and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, the shockwaves are reaching far beyond the energy sector.
For paper tube, honeycomb, and protective edge manufacturers, the consequences are already tangible: petroleum-based adhesives like PVA (polyvinyl acetate) and PVOH (polyvinyl alcohol) are facing rising costs, uncertain availability, and volatile lead times.
Here’s what’s happening — and what you can do about it.
What’s driving the crisis
On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the Gulf region, targeting energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE.
The immediate result: a near-complete shutdown of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil flows daily. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this is “the greatest global energy security challenge in history.”
Key figures as of mid-March 2026:
- Brent crude oil: $100–114 per barrel (up from ~$67 before the war)
- Oil price increase: over 40% since February 28
- Gulf oil production cut: at least 10 million barrels/day shut in
- Strait of Hormuz traffic: reduced to ~5% of normal flow
- IEA response: historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves
Even with emergency measures, analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that prices may stay in triple digits through Q2 2026 — and could reach $150/barrel if the conflict extends through March.
Why this matters for adhesive buyers
PVA and PVOH adhesives are petroleum-derived products. Their primary raw material — vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) — is manufactured from ethylene and acetic acid, both of which are directly linked to crude oil and natural gas prices.
When oil prices spike, the entire petrochemical supply chain tightens:
- Raw material costs surge:
VAM prices track oil and naphtha markets closely. A 40%+ rise in crude translates into significant cost pressure on PVA/PVOH producers — and ultimately on adhesive buyers. - Supply chains fracture:
The Middle East is not just an oil producer — it’s also home to major petrochemical complexes. The IEA reports that plunging LPG and naphtha supplies are already forcing petrochemical plants to curb polymer production. Gulf petrochemical flows are disrupted. - Lead times become unpredictable:
With shipping routes compromised, aviation disrupted, and insurance costs skyrocketing for Gulf-region cargo, getting raw materials from A to B is slower, more expensive, and far less reliable than it was 30 days ago. - Currency volatility adds pressure:
The euro has weakened against the dollar, which means European manufacturers importing petroleum-based raw materials face an additional cost layer on top of the commodity price increase itself.
The structural vulnerability of petroleum-based adhesives
This isn’t the first time oil markets have disrupted industrial supply chains — and it won’t be the last. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine caused similar, if smaller, shocks. COVID-19 disrupted global logistics for years.
The pattern is clear: if your adhesive depends on petroleum, your production depends on geopolitics.
Every barrel of crude that goes into PVA production is a barrel subject to sanctions, embargoes, shipping lane closures, OPEC decisions, and armed conflict. For manufacturers running high-volume, continuous production — like paper tube winding — this level of supply risk is a strategic liability.
Dextrin adhesives: a fundamentally different supply chain
TOPCORE dextrin adhesives are made from potato starch and water — two raw materials that are:
- Locally sourced in Central Europe
- Abundantly available — not subject to OPEC, shipping lane closures, or Middle East geopolitics
- Price-stable — agricultural commodity pricing is far less volatile than petroleum markets
- Sustainable — biodegradable, borax-free, and fully recyclable
When oil was $67/barrel, switching to dextrin made environmental sense. At $100+/barrel, it makes economic sense too.
What TOPCORE clients are not worrying about right now
While PVA-dependent manufacturers are scrambling to secure supply and negotiate emergency pricing, TOPCORE clients benefit from:
- Uninterrupted supply — raw materials sourced from European agricultural producers, not Middle Eastern petrochemical complexes
- Stable pricing — no exposure to crude oil volatility
- Consistent quality — same custom formulations, same performance, regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz
- Powder format option — up to 70% less water to transport, which also means less dependence on logistics capacity during disruptions
Should you switch now?
If you’re currently using PVA or PVOH adhesives for paper tube, honeycomb, or protective edge production, this is the right time to evaluate alternatives — not out of panic, but out of strategic planning.
Here’s what a transition looks like with TOPCORE:
- Free consultation — we analyze your current process, paper, and adhesive usage
- Custom formulation — we develop an adhesive matched to your specific production line
- On-site testing — we support the trial with technical engineers
- Smooth transition — gradual switch with parallel production support
- Ongoing service — daily delivery, quality monitoring, and continuous optimization
You can also use the TOPCORE Adhesive Cost Calculator to model your current costs vs. a TOPCORE dextrin solution — including moisture impact, water evaporation, and real cost per ton of finished tubes.
The bottom line
The 2026 Iran war has exposed what many in the paper industry already suspected: dependence on petroleum-based adhesives is a supply chain risk that can be eliminated.
Dextrin adhesives from TOPCORE offer the same — or better — bonding performance for paper tubes, protective edges, and honeycomb structures, with a fundamentally more resilient and sustainable supply chain.
Oil prices will eventually stabilize. But the next crisis is always closer than we think. The question is: will your adhesive supply be ready?
